Najeeb Jung, Chancellor of Jamia Millia Islamia, Delhi, a liberal institute with word ‘Islamia’ in the name as a doubtful and convenient adjunct, has tried to write an assessment of what the scenario in the subcontinent will be if and when US and NATO forces leave Afghanistan.
The first part of his assessment published in Indian Express (16/11/10) is fairly routine as has been written by any number of analysts. The fate of Karzai will be that of Najeebullah. Najeebullah was Soviet stooge. Karzai is US stooge. For Afghans, both come out as traitors to the nation. There is certainty of another civil war and after further bloodshed; eventually Taliban will take over Afghanistan.
The second part of Najeeb Jung's prophetic rendering, is however, widely off the mark.
Since Najeeb Jung is reportedly very near to Congress and Sonia Gandhi family, he has tried not to disturb his benefactors and had economized with the logical historical progression, that could be a distinct and very disturbing possibility. He has however betrayed the people of India.
This time around, Taliban will look south, first to their Pashtun tribe in Pakistan and together may decide how to deal with the larger strategic picture. With all India's fond hope of ingratiating itself with the people of Afghanistan, Taliban will not be among those that will appreciate India's development assistance during the foreign occupation era and will treat India on the same level as they will treat US and NATO. After all India was virtually in that camp.
[Najeeb writes:” Let us never forget that the average Afghan hated the Taliban for their rigid laws, views and brutality.” India’s Dalit and other backward castes who form democratic majority in India and who hate Brahmins for their rigid traditional social laws, views and brutality; still Brahmins are ruling India for last 63 years.]
Besides, the meeting of Afghan Taliban with Pakistan Taliban will further heighten reactions against India --- a sure gift from Pak Taliban.
Of course, it is more than a certainty, that US will not leave Pakistan, even if it quits Afghanistan in occupation military terms. In that case, it will be in India’s interest to befriend the ‘real’ power in Pakistan, regardless of its baggage of ideological, religious and historical handicaps.
However, once again India will feel more welcome in US camp and that will open it to side with anti-China gathering that US is trying to sew up - Obama’s Asian tour confirms this.
India should realize that China has done no wrong to US by becoming a cheap supplier of goods and services to their consumers. The US was happy with China as long as the going was good. However, now when it is pay time, US will try to blackmail and threaten China to accept its terms and possibly forget it has run up any surplus with the US. If India plays into US hands, it will be siding with a wrong-doer.
It will be difficult for India to keep its distance with US in any such confrontation that is building up. But if India has to survive as an independent and free nation, it should junk its Brahminical anti-Islamic obsession and open its heart and mind to not only its Muslim citizens, but to all its Muslim neighbours. And keep out of US axis that is sure to be imposed on India. India’s changed Iran policy is a welcome beginning. However, it is quite possible that the Brahmin ruling Oligarch will be ready to shed non-Brahmin blood to fight a war of America’s choosing.
If history is any guide, another scenario should at least kept in mind. As India progresses, the northern hordes --- Taliban of both varieties will descent on the plains of India. They had reached at one time and attacked an army camp much near to India’s borders, in not much distant past. The Northern hordes are derisive of any borders drawn on maps by foreign powers. And they may try to cross over. In case India, antagonizes China, China will be another super-power in the area that may decide to help the marauders.
In such a unpleasant combination of dire possibilities, India will have to bring in a dramatic change in its Idea of India. And that too very fast!
Ghulam Muhammed, Mumbai
http://www.indianexpress.com/
Tue, 16 Nov 2010
Hemmed in from all sides
Najeeb Jung
Tags : najeebjung, column
Posted: Tue Nov 16 2010, 04:38 hrs
Monsters with abilities to overcome physical destruction mutate and return with greater strength and venom. This is happening in Afghanistan and on the Af-Pak border, where a robust and rejuvenated Al-Qaeda and Taliban comprehensively expose the US’s 10-year endeavour to contain them and re-establish a credible Afghan government and restore sanity along the wild Durand Line. Within three years of the Taliban’s defeat in 2001, the Pakistan establishment helped retrain and rebuild the Taliban, so that they are once again more than a handful for the American forces. With President Obama’s visit behind us, it is time to reassess the extent to which the Af-Pak region exposes the confusion in American policy towards Pakistan and Afghanistan, America’s dependence on Pakistan, and the latter’s critical significance for the US’ fight against so-called “Islamic” terror. Afghanistan shares 2640 kilometres of border with Pakistan with a close kinship among tribes born of centuries of inter-marriages. This is why the Durand Line has never been accepted by people of the two countries living on either side of the border who demand an independent Pashtun homeland. Pakistan, on the other hand, remains a feeder state for terror, its military not just sustaining the Lashkar-e-Toiba, but its territories being havens for equally dreaded outfits like the Quetta Shura, the Haqqani network, the Jaish-e-Muhammed, and so on. It is abundantly clear that the Americans cannot succeed in Afghanistan, nor succeed in their effort to fight terror without the active help of the Pakistan establishment. The Pakistanis obviously understand this and extract the maximum from this US predicament.
Despite the best intentions and investment in time, resources and equipment, the US has not got a hold either on the ground or at the policy level. Top echelons in the Obama administration seem unclear on the road ahead but it is evident that the US is working on an exit strategy. The lack of clarity is on the path to drawdown of troops and the timeline for the drawdown. But as and when the US does withdraw the bulk of its forces, with circumstances remaining much the same as they are today, where would this leave Afghanistan, Pakistan, and indeed India? While it is impossible to make any accurate forecast, several scenarios are possible.
The first is the status quo, with President Karzai, like Najibullah before him, muddling along for some time. On the other hand, given his lackadaisical administration, if Karzai loses the loyalty of the Afghan National Army his regime will give way. The hawks in the form of the Ismail Khans, the Dostums and the Fahim Khans will strike. Each possible successor is worse than the other. Second, there is a distinct possibility of Kabul falling to the Taliban, reverting Afghanistan to the pre-9/11 period. This poses a further ethnic problem for the country, with the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras offering resistance and throwing the country into a fierce civil war. But a truly nightmarish scenario is the emergence of a fundamentalist Islamic state comprising the Pashtun territories of southern Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. This could be disastrous for Pakistan. The Pakistan army contains some who sympathise with fundamentalist Islam, and any ideological split within its officer class is bound to put heavy pressure on the federal government — which would indeed destabilise an already fragile Pakistan. Moreover, a premature US pullout will be viewed as a victory for the mujahideen giving a fillip to Islamic radical movements across the globe.
So to the question: where would all this leave India? The Afghans have always had a feeling of great warmth towards India and Indians. And they have no love lost for the Pakistanis, owing to Pakistan’s support and sustenance to the Taliban. Let us never forget that the average Afghan hated the Taliban for their rigid laws, views and brutality. But now, despite India having spent millions of dollars in developing roads, power generation and supply lines, technical assistance of various kinds, its geographical disconnect with Afghanistan, Pakistan’s geographical proximity and the latter’s ability to sustain terror groups in its territories, ironically puts Pakistan in pole position vis-a-vis the US and its challenge to organised terror. The truth is that Pakistanis have a deep distrust for the Americans. Despite this, the US is in a bind and continues to provide arms and monies to the Pakistan government. The US will continue with this process not just to equip and prop up Pakistan but with the understanding that if its own position in Pakistan weakens, the space is most likely to be taken by China, which has consistently supported Pakistan and eyes the Gwadar port as its exit point to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea. It is also a fact that India cannot pull out a rabbit from its hat that can make the US change its stand.
The only real choice left before India is to work with the United States to manage governance issues in Afghanistan, in the hope that with better governance, a natural resistance will develop for the re-emergence of a Taliban-type government. As of now, this is not a scenario one can bet on.
The writer is vice-chancellor of the Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi
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